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Virginian-Pilot Editorial

The Virginian-Pilot(Norfolk, Va.)  November 9, 2003Sunday Final Edition

NOW THAT ELECTION'S OVER, TIME FOR REAL ACTION BEGINS

by MARGARET EDDS, Richmond  

A lesson from two decades of covering Virginia politics: The period from the November elections to the General Assembly's opening in January is seldom the lull-in-the-action that everyone expects.

What ought to be downtime is, instead, prime time when real truths finally get spoken and real agendas are set.

This year promises to be no exception.

Between now and Jan. 14, Democratic Gov. Mark Warner will unveil the tax reform package on which his legacy hinges. He will be either the governor who moved - or tried to move - Virginia to new heights in education, based on a restructuring that produced new revenue for schools. Or he will be the governor who nursed Virginia through the recession.

This stretch may also see a counterproposal from GOP Senate Majority Leader John Chichester, who has been speaking out about Virginia's declining services. And it promises to feature intriguing responses from the legislative commission assigned to study tax reform and from GOP House Speaker Bill Howell, who pretty much vowed a few weeks back to crush any tax hikes.

That's not all. Groups with a stake in the outcome, from the Virginia Business Council to the Alliance for Virginia Students to Republicans United for Tax Relief, also will be jockeying for position in the tax debate.

In short, the next two months will be the opening act in a political drama that may get bloody and may lengthen the General Assembly past its scheduled closing. Many observers expect the mess to be dumped into a special session on tax restructuring next spring.

In a state where inertia is often the dominant political force, few doubt that Warner's yet-to-be-revealed tax reform plans face uphill sledding. It's taken by his friends as an enormous victory that the results of Tuesday's elections did not make the task harder.

Democrats still trail Republicans 61 to 37 in the House (two independents often side with the GOP) and 24 to 16 in the Senate. But the new margin is slightly better than the old, a minor miracle because Democrats have not gained legislative seats in an election since 1975.

A collection of groups and individuals plan to spend the next two months doing what they can to ease Warner's way. For instance, the Alliance for Virginia Students, a collection of pro-education forces such as the PTA and the Virginia School Boards Association, will host about 10 public forums across the state in which citizens can speak out about needs in public education.

The aim is to convince lawmakers that there is a ground swell of support for education funding. For months, various government boards and agencies have pointed out funding gaps from kindergarten through college that total some $2 billion over two years. But it's easier to ignore data than teachers, principals and moms and dads.

The first of the statewide events will be Tuesday in Newport News; the second is slated for Thursday from 7 to 8:30 p.m. at the convocation center at Old Dominion University.

Meanwhile, pro-business groups will continue pointing out erosion in the state's infrastructure from roads to colleges.

"To me, it's sort of a no-brainer," said Mike Anzilotti, a Northern Virginia banker and moderate Republican who chairs both the Virginia Business Council and the Coalition for Virginia's Future. "The speaker is wrong to think we're going to grow our way out of this. It's not going to happen."

The Business Council, which consists of top executives from 30-or-so of the state's premier businesses, and the coalition, which includes an assortment of business and manufacturing organizations, have joined with several other groups - including the conservative Heritage Foundation - to fund a sophisticated computer model intended to help with tax restructuring.

The model, which will be available to lawmakers and others through the Jefferson Institute, can plot the economic ramifications of various tax reform proposals, not just on tax collections but on regional economies. "The speaker says that if we raise any kind of taxes, it's bad for business. I don't know that that's necessarily the case," said Anzilotti.

Meanwhile, anti-tax groups won't be sitting idly by. Republicans United for Tax Relief will be warning members of what it expects from the governor, even before Warner opens his mouth. The group anticipates that Warner will try to hold state taxes level while giving localities new taxing authority. Whether or not that's Warner's plan, expect e-mails denouncing it.

Maybe it's a good thing that this year's elections were so boring. Before you can catch your breath, the real campaigns will be underway.

Note: Last week's column under-reported the contribution of Warner's PAC, One Virginia, to Lynwood Lewis, Democratic candidate for the House of Delegates in the 100th District. The PAC made a final contribution of $30,489 to Lewis on Oct. 30, the day the column was written.

Margaret Edds is an editorial writer for The Virginian-Pilot.

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The Virginian-Pilot(Norfolk, Va.)